Which quarterbacks landed in best place to succeed? Ranking the landing spots of a historic draft class (2024)

With the wilted remains of the 2021 quarterback draft class coming under more fire than ever this offseason, it’s natural to look at the first round of Thursday night’s NFL Draft with a great deal of skepticism.

Six quarterbacks were selected in the opening 12 picks for the first time ever. And now the conversation will turn to who will succeed and who will bust out of the NFL.

As expected, Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears), Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) and Drake Maye (New England Patriots) were the first three players off the board. Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons, No. 8), J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings, No. 10) and Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, No. 12) completed the historic stretch.

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This first round will forever be used to measure future QB classes. How this class will be remembered, however, hinges on everything that happens from here on out.

And as it relates to the bust factor, it’s also fair and necessary to pivot the microscope away from the players and toward the franchises that pick them. Sure, the wounds are fresh from the mistakes of the 2021 class, but they can also be used as a lesson for teams to improve their process in the future.

Remember, the 2021 class featured five QBs in the opening 15 picks for the first time in history. That epic class, which was dubbed an all-timer before a selection was ever made, included Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones. Though Lawrence will eventually sign a contract extension, the other four were traded over the past eight months for minimal returns.

They dealt with poor coaching, patchwork offensive lines, substandard supporting casts and other factors that weren’t conducive to success. And though each quarterback had issues, the teams can’t be let off the hook.

Understandably, the pre-draft narrative is centered around a quarterback’s strengths and weaknesses, but a young QB’s performance greatly hinges upon his team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Let’s rank those six landing spots and why each QB is set up for success and failure.

1. Caleb Williams, Bears

Why Williams can succeed

The former USC star was considered the best player in the draft and the top QB prospect since Lawrence. Compared to his draft class, Williams is in his own tier with his talent.

Bears general manager Ryan Poles has also quickly flipped the organization’s narrative. The Bears entered the past couple of seasons with poor supporting casts, but a surprising 5-3 finish validated their more recent additions, particularly the trade deadline acquisition of pass rusher Montez Sweat. That defense should take pressure off Williams.

Did we just become best friends? @CALEBcsw 🤝 @RomeOdunze pic.twitter.com/TskbpiqYiX

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) April 26, 2024

And then there’s the obvious factor. The Bears have wide receivers D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and No. 9 selection Rome Odunze, along with tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett. They have a video game offense, and four of those five skill players weren’t on the roster 14 months ago.

Not only do the Bears believe they have their first franchise quarterback in decades, but they also dropped him into an ideal situation.

Why Williams can fail

There were questions about the way Williams handled the pre-draft process, particularly the anecdote of someone from his inner circle asking about ownership stake. Though personnel executives polled by The Athletic believed those concerns were overblown, Williams will have to prove to his teammates he’s all about football and not just the business opportunities that come with the game.

There are a couple of coaching elements, too. Head coach Matt Eberflus seems to be in good standing after the late-season surge, but a rocky 2024 could shatter his job security. Conversely, if the Bears play well and Williams is a major reason why, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron could draw head-coaching looks. It’s tough to put a QB in a spot where they’re constantly recycling coordinators.

2. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings

Why McCarthy can succeed

Head coach Kevin O’Connell runs a user-friendly system, and all systems are extra user-friendly when they have Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones.

McCarthy has been universally praised for his leadership and personality, so he should be in sync with O’Connell from the start. McCarthy has a strong arm and has displayed an it-factor on the field, notably in the Rose Bowl comeback against Alabama.

Why McCarthy can fail

McCarthy was still viewed as the biggest projection of the group. Michigan’s system didn’t have many pro-style attributes, and McCarthy wasn’t asked to open it up and win the game through the air. Now, he’ll go from sprinkling in the occasional NFL throw to doing it on a down-by-down basis.

3. Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Why Daniels can succeed

Daniels wowed teams with his improvement over the past two seasons at LSU, and the belief is that trajectory will continue in the NFL. He has a plus arm and electric athleticism that should help him make off-schedule plays right away.

Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had some success with Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who has similarities to Daniels’ game. The Commanders also have good receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson.

Why Daniels can fail

Kingsbury’s system has been criticized for becoming too predictable, particularly later in the season when there’s so much for defenses to scout on film. The offensive line also needs work, and the Commanders don’t need Daniels running for his life and taking unnecessary hits throughout his rookie season.

There will also be pressure on Daniels from the fan base. The Commanders are out of former owner Daniel Snyder’s shadow, and Daniels is the new face of the franchise as it ushers in a new era with owner Josh Harris, general manager Adam Peters and coach Dan Quinn.

Maye-king the pick.

Inside the draft room as the Patriots select @DrakeMaye2. pic.twitter.com/0VWqLiW7yy

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) April 26, 2024

4. Drake Maye, Patriots

Why Maye can succeed

Maye has the best arm in the draft class and prototypical size, a perfect combination for a cold-weather team in New England. He’s as physically gifted as any QB in the draft.

Head coach Jerod Mayo has injected a refreshing new attitude at Gillette Stadium. The coaching staff and players are looser than they were in the final years under Bill Belichick, and the holdovers from the previous regime should have learned their lessons from the staff’s failure with Mac Jones.

Mayo has compiled a staff of coaches who emphasize a quality culture, and that should go a long way with Maye and the locker room.

Why Maye can fail

The Patriots had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, and they haven’t done much yet to improve it. They also have a below-average group of skill players. They’ll be able to upgrade those areas in the draft, and de facto general manager Eliot Wolf figures to remain aggressive on the veteran trade market. Short of a couple of big additions, though, Maye is going to be up against it.

The new staff also must prove it can develop a young quarterback, particularly one who has shown erratic tendencies and footwork. Maye won’t reach his ceiling if his fundamentals don’t improve, and coaching is a major part of that.

5. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons

Why Penix can succeed

Easily the biggest surprise of the opening round, the No. 8 pick figures to spend his first couple of seasons on the bench behind veteran Kirk Cousins, who has $100 million guaranteed in his contract.

Penix faces little pressure upon his arrival because he’s not expected to be on the field anytime soon. He can learn from Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, and Penix can be ready when necessary for a team loaded with offensive weapons. And for a quarterback with four season-ending injuries on his resume, a chance to take a breath for a couple of years could be advantageous.

Why Penix can fail

It’s impossible to predict how a high-level competitor will handle throttling back for a couple of years. That’s not a knock on Penix as much as it’s an acknowledgment of the unknown.

If it were simply about the supporting cast, Penix would probably be in the third-best situation. But he’s the only player on this list who is an obvious first-year backup.

Penix also has to improve his mechanics under pressure, which doomed him in the national championship loss to Michigan. And the injury knock will follow him until he proves it’s in the past.

6. Bo Nix, Broncos

Why Nix can succeed

Broncos head coach Sean Payton wants a quarterback who can take total command of the line of scrimmage, and Nix had plenty of experience handling those responsibilities at Oregon.

Nix is smart and mature, has better-than-average arm strength and can play the position like a point guard or distributor, which will be favorable with Payton. The Broncos coach revitalized Russell Wilson to an extent last season, so he still knows how to lead the position.

Why Nix can fail

The Broncos have major roster restrictions after parting with Wilson. Aside from the dead money they’ve incurred, the Broncos also had to release safety Justin Simmons and trade wide receiver Jerry Jeudy among the subsequent cap-related moves.

The Broncos have had three head coaches in the past three seasons, so there’s something of an identity crisis with their offensive personnel due to all the turnover. This is a group with a long rebuild ahead.

Teams like Nix’s ability, but the consensus was that he’d need a quality supporting cast and a strong running game to elevate him. Denver has work to do to get Nix to that point.

(Photo of Caleb Williams: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)